Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#245
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.0#115
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#158
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#318
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 10.2% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 31.1% 59.4% 28.7%
.500 or above in Conference 32.0% 51.6% 30.3%
Conference Champion 3.7% 8.1% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.9% 6.6% 17.7%
First Four1.8% 1.3% 1.8%
First Round5.1% 9.6% 4.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Neutral) - 7.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 49 - 611 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 53   Richmond L 70-85 8%    
  Nov 27, 2020 11   @ Kentucky L 65-88 1%    
  Nov 29, 2020 296   Morehead St. W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 04, 2020 10   @ Michigan St. L 66-90 2%    
  Dec 09, 2020 172   Kent St. L 77-78 45%    
  Dec 13, 2020 238   @ Western Michigan L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 19, 2020 121   Wright St. L 78-83 32%    
  Dec 20, 2020 121   Wright St. L 78-83 33%    
  Dec 26, 2020 295   IUPUI W 85-79 69%    
  Dec 27, 2020 295   IUPUI W 85-79 69%    
  Jan 01, 2021 216   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 02, 2021 216   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 08, 2021 272   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76-78 45%    
  Jan 09, 2021 272   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76-78 45%    
  Jan 15, 2021 240   Green Bay W 88-85 59%    
  Jan 16, 2021 240   Green Bay W 88-85 58%    
  Jan 22, 2021 243   @ Oakland L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 23, 2021 243   @ Oakland L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 29, 2021 199   @ Youngstown St. L 73-79 32%    
  Jan 30, 2021 199   @ Youngstown St. L 73-79 33%    
  Feb 05, 2021 227   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 06, 2021 227   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 12, 2021 242   @ Cleveland St. L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 13, 2021 242   @ Cleveland St. L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 19, 2021 212   Robert Morris W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 20, 2021 212   Robert Morris W 73-72 54%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 4.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.5 3.5 0.5 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.5 1.9 3.0 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 11.0 10th
Total 0.5 1.9 3.6 6.4 8.7 11.1 12.1 12.0 11.7 10.1 7.7 6.1 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 91.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 77.7% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 46.5% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 21.3% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 7.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 28.4% 27.4% 1.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4%
15-3 0.4% 33.9% 31.7% 2.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.3%
14-4 1.1% 36.6% 35.9% 0.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.1%
13-5 2.2% 26.3% 26.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6
12-6 4.2% 22.1% 22.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 3.3
11-7 6.1% 13.3% 13.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 5.3
10-8 7.7% 12.5% 12.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 6.8
9-9 10.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 9.4
8-10 11.7% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.1
7-11 12.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.6
6-12 12.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.9
5-13 11.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.0
4-14 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
3-15 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.4
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.7 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%